Zero-Covid is Over

Children's Motrin (美林 in Chinese). This is one of the medicines that everyone is panic-buying now. Image source.

Complete list is here: Index of Posts About the March 2022 Shanghai Covid Outbreak 

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HUGE news in China this week: There have been a TON of policy changes, which effectively mean we are not doing zero-covid at all any more. People with asymptomatic or mild covid cases can now quarantine at home. No more checking if you have a negative covid test every time you want to enter a public place. No more locking down entire communities. The government is telling people to try to take care of themselves at home if they get covid, to avoid overwhelming the medical system.

Wowwww this is big! This is exciting! This is, in my opinion, a good thing, but also whoaaa now we have to think about how to avoid getting covid, for the first time.

All right- the policies have been changing so fast- so I think I'll link a bunch of articles from SHINE here, to serve as a timeline. (Remember, of course, that we hate SHINE, because of all the bullshit they published from the government during the Shanghai lockdown. Never forget. But I do share a lot of links from them when I talk about the situation regarding covid in China. SHINE tells you what the Chinese government wants you to believe- so in the case of "here is the new policy the Chinese government just announced", SHINE will report that accurately.)

[Note: "PCR" means "polymerase chain reaction" which is a type of covid test. We also call them "nucleic acid tests." 核酸 in Chinese.]

COVID-19 emergency phase closer to end despite Omicron transmission: WHO (December 3) This is an article about how omicron is not that bad compared to the original covid virus. Since we all know that SHINE is a propaganda rag that publishes only want the Chinese government wants you to think, it's a BIG DEAL that they're publishing this. This is a huge sign that things are changing.

Shanghai relaxes COVID-19 testing requirements for public transport, parks (December 4) "Citizens will no longer be required to show a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test report from Monday morning to take Metro, buses, ferries and other in-city public transportation, Shanghai's COVID-19 prevention and control authority said on Sunday. Local parks, scenic spots and other outdoor public venues will also stop checking PCR test report at the entrances." So, for public transportation and parks, you no longer have to have a negative covid test, but you still have to scan the venue code and show that you have a green health code.

Shanghai scraps PCR checks at more public places (December 5) "From Tuesday, a negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test report will be only required at elderly care institutions, child welfare institutions, medical institutions, schools (including kindergartens), indoor entertainment venues (including KTV, poker and chess rooms, room escape and live action role-play games and Internet bars), catering services (including bars) as well as other places with special COVID prevention requirements." But people who have entered Shanghai within the past 5 days still can't go places. But also, here's another change: even if you haven't had a nucleic acid test for 7 days, your health code will not turn yellow- it will stay green. 

Should elderly people be vaccinated against COVID-19? (December 5) There are some fears around vaccines in Chinese culture- a lot of people seem to have the idea that only healthy people should get vaccines, because the vaccine itself has a little bit of "risk" so it's better if elderly people/ people with other medical conditions don't get the vaccine, just to be safe. The Chinese government keeps putting out more and more statements saying "okay, YES, old people should get vaccinated." Hope it works.

Beijing cancels COVID test requirements for public places (December 6)

Home quarantine allowed for asymptomatic, mild COVID cases (December 7) This is huge. This is the turning point right here. But note that there are still some rules- "if their apartments can meet quarantine requirements" and "Close contacts of infected persons are also allowed to quarantine at home for five days rather than spend a week in central quarantine as was previously required." (Or, it says you can choose to go to centralized quarantine if you're into that.) So it implies there's still some level of the government checking up on you to make sure you're doing your quarantine according to the rules. Who knows what this will actually look like in reality... honestly my guess is that you're basically on your own and no one will be enforcing this.

China approves 4 new COVID vaccines for emergency use (December 7) 

Medical experts take hammer to online trolls' COVID red herrings (December 7) LOLOLOLOL OMG YOU GUYS, this article is HILARIOUS. Unintentionally hilarious. My favorite part is "Meanwhile a small number of online trolls, either out of ignorance or for the sake of inflating clicks, are churning out sensational stuff dramatizing the agonies, or the so called after-effects of COVID-19 infections." I'm old enough to remember when SHINE was churning out sensational stuff about how bad covid is. It's quite a whiplash going from "we need to lock down entire cities for months" to "this is basically just the flu, don't worry everyone."

Shanghai relaxes COVID rules for travelers, close contacts (December 7) People arriving in Shanghai from other cities are no longer required to get covid-tested on arrival. Also, there is no longer a rule that you can't go places for 5 days after arriving in Shanghai. (One of my coworkers was like "oh I didn't even have time to sign up for the white list and they've already ended the policy"- she lives outside of Shanghai and commutes every day. The city of Shanghai was making a white list for commuters so they wouldn't be affected by the 5-day restriction- but now the whole thing is cancelled so never mind.)

What to do after being infected with COVID-19? (December 8) Another unintentionally hilarious article! Actually, everything in the article is good advice- the hilarious part is how they've spent 3 years telling us how bad covid is, and now suddenly "don't worry it's fine."

No PCR result checks for restaurants, indoor entertainment sites (December 8) This article lists the 10 new policy changes that were just announced. 

From central quarantine facilities to COVID hospitals with enhanced treatment (December 9) This article is about how the policies for the hospital system are changing to deal with the fact that there's going to be covid everywhere now.

China keeps optimizing control measures to effectively deal with epidemic uncertainties (December 9) Here's some propaganda about how China has done such a good job with everything related to the pandemic for the past 3 years.

Entertainment venues and tourist spots free of PCR and code checks (December 9)

So, wow, yeah.

In a lot of ways, it's like wow we totally don't have any rules any more! Whatever! But let me point out a few key areas where there are still rules:

Schools: Students and teachers are getting tested every day now. It's unclear to me what the plan is for schools- I assume it's something along the lines of "if a student tests positive, then their whole class (around 20-30 kids) has to stay home from school for 5 days." But... it seems like that would cause constant interruptions to the school year, right? Like, A LOT of people are going to be getting covid now, and I don't think it's realistic to think they'll be able to keep it out of the schools.

Also, kids don't wear masks at school. Are they going to start requiring kids to wear masks at school? Is that really realistic, to have little kids wear masks for the entire day?

The government is still involved in nucleic acid testing: So, if you test positive on a nucleic acid test, the government has that data. Is the government going to send someone to check and make sure you're doing your home quarantine? To make sure your apartment "meets quarantine requirements" (I assume this means you're not sharing a kitchen/bathroom with other families, like some old-style Shanghai apartments)? And make sure you get tested on the 6th and 7th days? Are there going to be sensors on people's doors (which was one of the common ways they did home quarantine before) or is it just like, you're on your own?

My opinion is, now that they're not doing zero-covid, checking up on people in home quarantine will be a very very low priority. Probably you're just on your own and no one is going to enforce these rules. Maybe the government will just send you a text message to tell you you tested positive, and that's it.

Are they really going to keep tracking close contacts, or not? If you do a self-test and you're positive, and you don't report it anywhere, that's fine, right?

A lot of uncertainty in how this is going to actually work. Probably it will take some time for things to shake out and adapt. No one really knows yet.

"High risk areas": So, the new policies still mention "high risk areas" (see here for example), saying that high risk areas have to be just a single floor of a building and can't be expanded to be like a whole apartment complex, high risk areas have to be released from lockdown if there are no new cases in 5 days, etc. So... so there are still going to be small lockdowns? There are still going to be "high risk areas"? That doesn't really make sense to me- soon so many people will be getting covid, how can the government possibly keep track of which specific places all these people live? And, why would the government spend time and resources on that anyway, now that we're not doing zero-covid?

Probably this is just an example of the policies changing very fast, and during this transition period there are some aspects of the policies which are not really logically consistent- but that will all get worked out after a few weeks.

International travelers: No changes have been announced related to people entering China. But rumor has it that soon there will be changes. Right now the policy is you have to do 8 days of quarantine when you enter China- obviously that doesn't make sense if zero-covid is over, though. Also, China hasn't been issuing tourist visas for a long time- but maybe that will change.

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About not getting covid

So, we live in a completely different society now. Before, we lived in a zero-covid society, where you can basically do whatever, with your mask off, and the only thing to worry about is tedious rules about how often you have to get tested and whether or not you're allowed to travel to different cities. I mean, also lockdown was really bad... but my point is, we never really had to face the risk of actually getting covid. 

That has completely changed now. We live in a different world than we did 1 week ago. Now covid could be anywhere. It's coming. It will come in a huge wave. We're going to see a lot of our friends get infected- and hopefully it's not that bad, but... I mean, gosh, you definitely don't want to catch it during the first wave, when society hasn't really figured out how to handle it in those numbers yet.

So, because we live in this new world, there are some very big, glaring issues that need to change. Giant areas of risk. Currently, people wear masks when they're in public places with a bunch of strangers- like on the subway, at a mall, etc- but don't wear masks with people they know (friends, coworkers). And don't wear masks at restaurants. These are the masking habits we've developed over these 3 years, and they were good masking habits for a zero-covid society. But they have to change now- these habits are not adequate for a society where covid could be anywhere.

So, on Thursday and Friday, I wore a mask at the office. I think I was the only one wearing a mask. It's like, people don't recognize that we live in a different society now, a society where people can get covid at work. (My coworkers are Chinese, btw.)

Also, my husband and I decided not to eat at restaurants for now. Also, when I went out with friends (international people) yesterday, I wore a mask even though nobody else did. Also, we are concerned about Square Root not wearing a mask at school- that is the biggest vulnerability in our lives right now.

Yes, on WeChat tons of people are sharing lists of "here are the medicines you should buy and keep at home, for treating covid." I've seen articles shared about how to protect yourself from getting infected (masks, social distancing, obvious things like that). So, people who have a lot of anxiety and use social media a lot are definitely aware of the fact that we live in a different society now, and the task of protecting us from covid has fallen to us now- the government is not doing it any more. (And, arguably, we don't want the government doing it anyway.)

And, also here's an important point: There is a big difference in how international people and Chinese people are viewing this news. International people know tons of friends and family members outside of China who have had covid and were fine, and often have the attitude "China needs to stop all these lockdowns and just move on like the rest of the world." Whereas Chinese people only know what they've seen in the news about covid, but don't know anyone personally who has actually had it. In the international WeChat groups I'm in, everyone is happy and relieved- but my husband is in some Chinese groups where everyone is panicking.

But it seems that most people aren't ... really changing anything. Maybe they're buying a bunch of medicine just in case, but they're not taking a careful look at their mask-wearing habits and reevaluating them in light of the new society we now live in.

I barely ever wore a mask at work before, or when I went out with friends. Because there was basically 0 risk of getting covid. Now it's different, and I'm concerned that the general population hasn't really reckoned with that fact.

Like why isn't anyone talking about "flatten the curve"?

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Reports of covid cases

I've seen some anecdotes on WeChat- about people who have covid with a really high fever but just have to stay at home because the hospitals are overwhelmed. And I saw a photo of a fever clinic in Beijing that was totally crowded. (Stuff like that hasn't happened in Shanghai yet- but it's a matter of time.) Now, seeing a few anecdotes on social media don't really tell you anything about the overall situation, obviously- but yeah, I think we'll see more of that in the near future. About how covid can still be bad, even though you're vaccinated and not going to die from it.

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About single tubes

So, the way the mass testing works is this: You get your throat swabbed, and they put 10 people's swabs in 1 tube, because it's expected that all 10 people are covid-negative. Put them all in 1 tube to save resources. If you have a fever, or some kind of reason to think there's actually a chance you could have covid, then you can get a single tube for yourself.

If the tube tests positive, then they contact those 10 people and test them all individually.

So, how is this going to work now, now that there's actually a chance that people will have covid, and also now that healthy people will get tested much less frequently because it's mostly not required any more? Seems like soon they'll have to switch to giving everyone their own tube (or maybe 1 tube per household). And maybe also charging money for it? We'll see.

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Comparison to 2020

In a lot of ways, I feel like we're at the point now in China where a lot of other countries were in early 2020. We know about covid; we know it's out there, and it's coming, but we haven't experienced it yet.

But the important thing is, we're vaccinated now. And this is omicron, which is less deadly than the original strain. And now we have a lot more knowledge about how to treat it than we did in 2020. And the manufacturers of masks and medicine have had plenty of time to increase production.

So we're in a much better position than we were in 2020. But still, it's going to happen, it's going to spread through the whole population- and China has never experienced that before. I saw a comment on WeChat that said "this is going to be the first omicron outbreak in a society that hasn't really had covid outbreaks before." Yeah.

We'll see what happens. I personally am going to try really hard not to get covid. 

I gotta say, though, I'm really happy about this. Maybe for selfish reasons... it's a lot of stress, living in a zero-covid society, with the threat of lockdown always in the background, and not being able to see my family for 3 years. We'll see what happens.

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Links

Sixth Tone

China Further Eases COVID Curbs, Allows Home Isolation for Mild Cases (December 7)

After 3 Years of COVID, China’s Gen-Z Are Mourning Their Lost Future (December 6)