OMG, Big Changes to the Zero-Covid Policy

An airplane landing at an airport in China. Image source.

Complete list is here: Index of Posts About the March 2022 Shanghai Covid Outbreak 

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Big news! On November 11, China issued 20 updated guidelines for the pandemic control policies.

Here are links to news articles about it:

SHINE

A quick look at China's new COVID-19 control policies (November 11) This page has a really nice infographic that explains the biggest changes (it doesn't include all 20 of the new policies though).

Quarantine period slashed for inbound travelers to China (November 11)

Sixth Tone

China Eases COVID Curbs, Cuts Quarantines and Flight Bans (November 11) Very good article, definitely worth reading.

The New York Times

China Eases Some Pandemic Policies, While Sticking to ‘Zero Covid’ (November 11) Interesting how the New York Times focuses more on the economic impact of these changes, and also emphasizes that this does NOT mean zero-covid is ending. Very true.

NPR

China eases its 'zero COVID' policy with shorter quarantines and fewer restrictions (November 11)

Reuters

China shortens quarantines as it eases some of its COVID rules (November 11)

CNN

China scraps Covid flight bans, cuts quarantine for inbound travelers (November 11) As always, CNN is here with their "zero-covid is bad, everyone hates it" spin.

Since none of these articles have the actual numbered list of 20 policies, let me just type it up here. I got this English translation from an article on the "I Love Shanghai" WeChat account (they cite Bloomberg as a source- but the Bloomberg article is paywalled):

1. Cut isolation for close contacts to five days at a central facility and three days at home, down from 7+3;
2. No longer identify the close contacts of close contacts;
3. People leaving high-risk areas must spend seven days at home, rather than at a centralized quarantine facility;
4. Remove the "medium" risk category; only homes, workplaces and areas often frequented by someone infected will be deemed high-risk; all other areas are low-risk; high risk areas should mostly be confined to residential units or blocks, and cannot be extended at will;
5. Workers in high-risk positions exiting closed-loop operations must spend five days at home, down from seven days at home or in a centralized isolation facility;
6. Remove mass testing in most areas, with citywide tests given only when the source of infection is unknown; [note from Perfect Number- interestingly, our apartment complex's "mandatory" testing this weekend has now been cancelled]
7. Scrap circuit breaker bans for incoming flights and reduce pre-flight PCR testing to one from two;
8. Allow closed-loop systems to ease rules for business executives and sports stars;
9. Set cycle threshold values at less than 35 to diagnose Covid in new arrivals;
10. Cut quarantine for new arrivals to five days in a hotel and three at home, down from the previous 7+3;
11. Increase health care resources, including hospital beds;
12. Promote vaccine usage, especially booster shots for the elderly;
13. Stockpile medicine and equipment to treat Covid;
14. Determine the size of the population still at risk for Covid; [note from Perfect Number- from reading the Chinese version, this means people who are most at risk because they are old or have other medical conditions]
15. React quickly to outbreaks to reduce size and duration needed for pandemic control;
16. Halt excessive anti-Covid measures imposed by local governments;
17. Provide adequate supplies and necessary medical care for people in quarantine;
18. Improve pandemic control measures on school campuses;
19. Implement pandemic control measures in industrial parks to ensure smooth supply chain operations;
20. Arrange orderly departures for people who are stranded during lockdowns.

So, a lot going on here. The policies mentioned in most of the news articles are the very concrete ones- like, changing quarantine time to 5+3, instead of 7+3. ("5+3" means 5 days in the quarantine hotel + 3 days at home. Though actually in reality, from what I've heard from people doing quarantine in Shanghai, the "7+3" policy is really "10+0"- they're making people do all 10 days in the quarantine hotel. So think of the new policy as 8+0.) And then there are the ones that are more vague, like they want to "improve" this or that. Not really sure what that means, but okay, those are good changes, if they actually happen. And then items 11-14... which seem a little different, like, these are the sorts of things you do if you are planning to end the zero-covid policy.

My take on it is, no, they are not ending the zero-covid policy any time soon. I *think* probably the Chinese government believes they can still maintain zero-covid even with these shorter quarantine times, without designating any "medium-risk" areas, only doing contact tracing to the level of "close contacts" and not "secondary close contacts", etc. And they certainly have a lot of data on this- they have the data on "how many people in quarantine tested positive on the 9th or 10th day?"- if it's basically 0, then yeah you can shorten the quarantine by 2 days. "How many secondary close contacts ended up testing positive?"- if it's basically 0, then yeah you can stop contact tracing them. Etc. They definitely have the data on it. 

Or, perhaps a different view on this is: Right now several cities in China are having covid outbreaks (I have heard Guangzhou is having a particularly bad time right now). Perhaps because the number of covid cases is so high right now (not in Shanghai but in other cities throughout China), they just don't have the resources to do all that contact tracing and keep people in quarantine that long. So it's a sign that they're not able to control covid, and won't be able to maintain zero-covid. That's not really my interpretation of it, but I have heard that from some Chinese people.

But of course, for international people in China, this is incredibly good news. We are thrilled. Like, when I heard that the circuit breaker policy is no longer in effect- oh man, you guys, you do not know how incredibly good that is. Like, probably y'all are reading these articles that mention "circuit breaker" and you're like "well that's an odd name, and also I don't really know what it means here." Let me tell you. So the circuit breaker policy said that, for international flights arriving in China, if a certain percentage of the passengers from the flight end up testing positive on arrival or in quarantine, then that airline has to cancel that flight number for the next few weeks. (I am not sure on the specific number of weeks, it depends on how many people tested positive; also the policy has been tweaked several times. Probably about 2 weeks.) And of course, everyone entering China has been required to have 2 negative PCR tests, in order to board the flight (new policy changes it to 1 though)- when people test positive on arrival, it's not their fault and it's not the airline's fault. These are people who have already jumped through A LOT of anti-covid hoops in order to get back into China. So honestly I never thought the circuit breaker policy made much sense; it just felt to me like if they're getting more travelers testing positive on arrival, then they want to limit the number of travelers entering the country, so they picked this mechanism to do it.

Because of the circuit breaker policy, SO MANY people trying to enter China have had flights cancelled, over and over. Like, flight gets cancelled, you buy a ticket for a different flight, that one gets cancelled too, and so on. I have heard of people buying refundable tickets on several different airlines, in the hopes that at least 1 of the flights will actually fly. It is just... oh my goodness, these past 3 years, it has been so HARD to get into China, and the circuit breaker policy was one of the big reasons why. (Another big reason was the requirements for testing before your flight- those policies changed a few months ago to become much more workable, thank goodness. And now, with the new policies announced on November 11, only 1 PCR test is required before flying to China, rather than 2.) 

Like, now it feels like it's actually doable, to leave China and come back. Still have the do the quarantine when you arrive in China, of course; but now it's 8 days instead of 10.

(I have been stuck here almost 3 years, you guys. It's easy to leave China but it's hard to come back.)

And ticket prices should go down now. A few weeks ago I searched, and round-trip flights from China to the US were maybe $2000 or $3000 ish, per person. Cheapest I could find was about $1500. And if your travel dates are not flexible, then I mean yikes you might end up paying $6000, because there are so few options- those relatively cheaper prices I found are NOT available every day. Typically each airline only runs about 2 round-trip flights per week from China to the US. But the flights are definitely going to get cheaper now. I am sure the circuit breaker policy was very costly for airlines; now that it's no longer in effect, prices will come down.

So anyway, wow this is big. We'll see how it goes.