I Don't Know Anyone in China Who Has Had Covid

A graph showing active covid cases in China. It goes up to a peak of 60K in February 2020, then comes down sharply, and from March or April 2020 it basically hovers around 0, continuing to stay basically at 0 all the way through the end of the graph (Dec 2021). Screenshot from worldometer, taken December 26, 2021.

I'm in Shanghai, China. I've been living in China since 2013, and I've been literally stuck here not leaving the country since the start of the pandemic. 

I read the news, and I talk to relatives in the US, and things related to the pandemic are just so completely different here than in other countries. Like people ask me "are you guys back to work yet?" and like, I was back to work in the office in February 2020.

I guess the best way to sum it up is this: I don't know anyone in China who has had COVID-19. Nope, not a one. None of my friends, none of my husband's family members (my husband is Chinese), none of my coworkers. In the many WeChat groups I am in, with hundreds of members (mostly mom groups for international women living in China), not a single person has mentioned they had covid or their kids had covid or anything. (WeChat is a social media app that everyone in China uses for texting and group chats.)

Ah, wait, with 1 exception: In January 2020, I saw someone in a big WeChat group share a screenshot of a text conversation- it said "there is a SARS outbreak in Wuhan." Yes, back then we didn't have the word COVID-19; we didn't even have the words "novel coronavirus"- they called it SARS, because Chinese people remember SARS from 2003. And this person in the WeChat group said she has a friend in Wuhan who had 2 relatives die, and they are not allowed to talk about it. The moderator of the WeChat group said "thank you for the warning. We cannot discuss this any more in this group though, because some group chats have been shut down for 'spreading rumors'." This was back when the government of Wuhan was still trying to cover it up, which was obviously a really bad way to handle it. Within a few weeks, the national government of China stepped in and turned things around with strategies that actually work, such as mass testing, quarantines, and tracking people's travel histories.

So yeah, other than that, I have never heard anyone in China talking about "oh my friend so-and-so has covid" or anything along those lines. No, I don't know anyone in China who has had covid. All of us have been affected by the pandemic-control restrictions, but no, no one actually had covid.

I know people who were in home quarantine for weeks at the beginning of the pandemic, because of their travel history. I have a colleague who is from Hubei province, and she was going home for Chinese New Year 2020, and actually passed through the Wuhan train station just days before the whole city was closed. When she came back to Shanghai, she worked from home for 3 weeks, I think- because everyone who had returned from "high-risk" areas was required to stay home for at least 14 days. (She did 3 weeks just to be sure.) Later, her father came to live with her, and when he arrived, she had to do another 14 days of quarantine at her home with him.

I know moms from the WeChat groups, who live in northern China in cities near Beijing, and they complain about being in lockdown again. Seems like those areas have had several "outbreaks"- but in China, an "outbreak" is like, a dozen cases, and then wide-ranging lockdowns and testing.

I know someone who lives in a city that had an outbreak, and then the city required every single person living there to get covid-tested. Millions of people. She actually had to get tested 3 or 4 times over the course of several weeks. (I don't know if the entire city got tested 3 or 4 times, or if the later tests were more focused on smaller areas.)

I know someone who works at Shanghai Disneyland, who was there on October 31, the night that every single person in Disneyland and Disneytown had to get covid-tested because it was discovered that a traveler who had been in Disneyland on October 30 tested positive for covid. (All tests came back negative.) I saw videos shared on WeChat, the pandemic staff covered head-to-toe in their white hazmat suits, sitting at tables administering covid tests to one person after another after another, and the Disney fireworks show in the background.

I know people who have entered China, who were required to do the 14-day quarantine. Everyone who enters mainland China is required to get covid-tested AND ALSO to quarantine. We had neighbors who came back to China, and the management of our apartment complex put a sticker across their apartment door so that it would be obvious if anyone opened it, and set up a security camera facing the door. For this quarantine, you CANNOT OPEN THE DOOR. After 14 days, they got out of quarantine and the camera was removed. I also know people who had to do the quarantine at a quarantine hotel instead of at home. One of my friends was required to stay in the quarantine hotel for 21 days. He was allowed to open his door to get food that was dropped off by the quarantine staff, and also to get covid-tested. Had to get covid-tested several times over the course of the 21 days. (All were negative.) He said the food wasn't very good, and the internet connection was awful because 300 people were all trying to use it at the same time.

And there have been international families that got stuck outside of China for months or even a year- I have heard of lots of people in this situation. In March 2020, China banned all foreigners from entering the country- and that ban was in place for about 6 months I think. (And now they let foreigners in, but there are lots of rules about exactly what paperwork you need, and there are very few flights available. And no, they are not giving out tourist visas.) I personally know a married couple, and the husband stayed in Shanghai while the wife went back to her home country, and then she couldn't get back into China for about 8 months. Finally she did get back, and they are together again. I also know someone who decided to leave in February 2020 and planned to just stay in another Asian country for "a few months until all of this is done" and then got stuck outside of China and eventually gave up on getting back.

My son has had fevers many times, and the pandemic policy says we aren't allowed to go to any hospital we wanted; we could only go to those that had been designated as fever clinics. When you get there, every patient who has a fever is required to get covid-tested. I submitted the receipts to my health insurance company (an international company based outside of China), and they said they will only reimburse the covid test if we have a doctor's referral for it. I emailed them back to say, at this hospital (and probably for all of China?) the policy is that everyone who has a fever must be covid-tested. (And then they reimbursed it.) Some family members in the US asked me about the result from my son's covid test, and I said "well I haven't gotten on the app to check it yet, but since there haven't been any government workers banging on our door, it must be negative." (Yep, negative every time. And we knew it would be- we don't know anybody at all in China who has had covid.)

Recently for our project at work, we had to send some people on a business trip. Shanghai had just reported something like 3 locally-transmitted covid cases, so other cities were very cautious about letting us travel there. (Yes, 3. That's not a typo.) They said that they would not allow anyone who lives in Pudong- a huge district in Shanghai, population is around 5 million. Now, as far as the city of Shanghai is concerned, the apartment complexes where these 3 covid-infected people live were classified as "medium-risk" areas, and as long as you haven't gone there, you can go wherever you want. That's what the city of Shanghai says, but other cities have their own rules, and view the entire district of Pudong as a problem. So we picked 2 people from our project team who don't live in Pudong (even though other people on the project live in Pudong, and we are all at the office together unmasked every day...) and sent them on the trip. They were required to get covid-tested 3 times: once before getting on the plane in Shanghai, once when they landed in another city, and again when they drove from there to a third city- because each city doesn't accept the others' test results. (And of course the results came back negative every time.)

I remember one time when we heard that there was 1 locally-transmitted covid case in Shanghai, and someone at work was telling me "it's not safe to take the subway" because of that. And I was like, "but... you're vaccinated..." A lot of people are way way cautious whenever they hear news about 1 single covid case in a city.

I saw a post shared on WeChat- a friend of a friend said that the quarantine staff came in the middle of the night and woke up everyone in their apartment building and covid-tested them all, because 1 person in the building is a close contact of a confirmed case. (A close contact, not even a confirmed positive case.) They were all sent back to their homes to wait for the test results. The quarantine staff said if all the results come back negative, they will be allowed to leave their homes, and if any are positive, they will all have to stay there (yes, even the negative ones), and the quarantine staff will bring them lunch.

At work, HR sent out an email that said "we have heard about situations where an entire office building gets quarantined- so just in case, we recommend bringing some supplies like warm clothes, so you have them if we are all stuck here."

Yeah, there have been a handful of times that Shanghai had a locally-transmitted covid case. Each time, I first heard of it through unreliable rumors going around in WeChat groups, and then by the end of the day, the city of Shanghai makes an official announcement about it. And the next day, you always see the city of Shanghai publishing an article on their WeChat along the lines of "30,000 people have been tested in relation to the covid case reported yesterday, so far all results have come back negative." (Or occasionally there might be 1 positive. And yes, I believe those numbers. Yes, I believe China's numbers. I'm here; I don't know anyone with covid; we live our lives normally except we have to wear masks. I believe China's numbers.)

And I've heard people in the WeChat groups talking about "my friend lives in Beijing, her husband was traveling and had a transfer in Shanghai, and now Beijing won't allow him to enter for the next 2 weeks, because he was in Shanghai for just a few hours." It seems like the city of Beijing in particular is extremely strict because they want everything to be perfect for the Olympics.

So I know people who have experienced all of these things. All the restrictions and rules we have in China now because of the pandemic. This is our experience with covid. But no one actually *has* covid. Statistically: there have been something like 100,000 or 130,000 covid cases in China- cumulative. And something like 4000 to 5000 deaths. (According to this site and this site.) China has a population of 1.4 billion. So this means about 1 in 10,000 people in China have had covid. That's 0.01%. That's one-hundredth of one percent. (And actually, something like 75,000 of those were just in the initial outbreak in Hubei province in early 2020. Outside of Hubei province, the rate is way way less than 1 in 10,000.)

Compare this to the US: 50 million cases, in a population of 330 million. That's 15%. That's 1500 times the rate we have in China.

It must be unbelievable, to just look at the statistics. People must be thinking, "China is claiming they only have 100,000 covid cases CUMULATIVE? There have been times when the US reported 100,000 new cases just in ONE SINGLE DAY! And only 4000 deaths? This is ridiculous, obviously this data is fake, they're not fooling anyone." But it's real, I'm telling you that it's real, and I'm telling you how it's possible- it's because of all these rules, which are extremely restrictive for travelers and anyone who happens to live kinda-sorta near anyone who tested positive for covid.

These rules which have saved millions of lives in China.

There really is a place in this world where we can just go about our lives mostly like normal. Have to wear a mask in public, and traveling is hugely complicated and sometimes impossible, but other than that, my life has been "back to normal" for a long time now. I worked from home for maybe 2 weeks in February 2020, then I was back in the office. I still worried about covid until May 2020, but since then, no, I haven't. I'm not worried I'm going to get covid. I'm not worried when my son has a fever- I know it's not covid, because nobody here gets covid (okay maybe occasionally like 2 people in a city of 26 million, and then there are lockdowns and testing and everyone is talking about it).

I mean, it's not all good news- for me, all these covid rules are just kind of an inconvenience, but I have read articles about cities near the border that have had to have lockdowns over and over and over because they keep having covid cases, because China isn't able to control everyone who's crossing the land borders. For those cities, it's been devastating to their economy. 

China has done a good job handling the pandemic, and I'm fortunate to be here and be able to live a normal life- well except that we have to wear masks in public, and traveling to other cities requires jumping through a lot of hoops and running the risk that you'll get stuck in a quarantine for 14 days. Yes, other than those rules, I am fine. I don't need to fear covid, because essentially nobody has it. Even 1 case in a city of millions is big news. So no, I don't know anyone in China who has had covid. I know lots of people who have been inconvenienced by all these pandemic rules. But nobody has covid.

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